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Alan’s View – 18th August 2021

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Alan Goode, CEO and Chief Analyst, shares his views on the latest developments for Digital Trust featuring latest updates on  behavioral biometrics including the acquisition of Revelock by Feedzai and latest round-up on investment and M&A for the industry.

 

Alan’s View – 29 July 2021

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Alan Goode, CEO and Chief Analyst, shares his views on the latest developments for Digital Trust featuring latest updates on  Covid-19 health pass, quantum encryption and SSI, updates on RSA Outseer and Transmit Security, and latest round-up on investment and M&A for the industry.

 

 

Alan’s View – 22 July 2021

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Alan Goode, CEO and Chief Analyst, shares his views on the latest developments for Digital Trust featuring UK and France government’s plans for Covid-19 health pass, UK government asks for consultation on digital identity plans, New York City introduces biometric privacy law and latest round-up on investment and M&A for the industry.

Digital Trust World 2021 – The matter of trust in a digital world

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Digital Trust World 2021

The matter of trust in a digital world

From the company that brought you the annual Biometric, Identify and Identity Summits, join us in shaping the digital trust landscape of the future.

Trust is at the heart of fruitful relationships, both personal and business.  This is true for both the physical and digital worlds.

In the physical world we create trust through security, effective process, and reputation. These pillars guide us through our decision making when establishing trust and inform us when asking questions such as, Do I trust this person to honour an obligation? Can I trust a business with my money?  Do I trust that my healthcare provider will keep my records secured under lock and key, and that the key can only be accessed by authorised people?

Trust is also very much a two-way process – a mutual relationship based on reputation. Can an entity trust that I am a real person and not an imposter, that I will abide by the rules of the relationship, and that I do not have previous history of reneging on a contract, either on purpose or by misfortune?

In the physical world we issue documents and create records that prove who we are, when we were born, where we live, what we can do and what have we done.  These make us eligible to receive healthcare or social care, to permit us to travel internationally, to permit us to drive a vehicle (and what types of vehicles), to prove that we have been fined for speeding. The list goes on….

In the digital world we need to match the levels of trust that thousands of years of human civilisation has created to maintain a safe and prosperous society.

We are in the fourth industrial revolution and due to COVID-19 pandemic, digital transformation is accelerating at an incredible rate. How we recreate the trust of the physical world, and even improve on it, is one of the fundamental questions of our time.

Digital Trust World 2021, a major new event from Goode Intelligence, will provide a platform for the world’s leading authorities in Digital Trust to drive the conversations around how we can effectively develop trust in the digital world, alongside our thought leadership expertise in the digital trust economy.

Goode Intelligence has been active in covering the latest developments shaping Digital Trust since 2007 when it published its ground-breaking market analyst report on the mobile phone as an authentication device. Since then, Goode Intelligence has been instrumental in shaping the narrative around trust in the digital world predicting the

  • Importance of biometric technology for frictionless mobile authentication in 2010 – three years before the arrival of Apple Touch ID
  • Critical role of mobile in remote identity verification
  • Opportunity for decentralised identity, central to the passwordless authentication movement
  • Arrival of multi-purpose biometric technology for cars
  • Future of touch-free biometric payments to support new retail opportunities
  • Importance of quantum cryptography in withstanding the threat from quantum computing.

Topics and Themes

Digital Trust World 2021 covers the following topics and themes segmented into the following technologies:

  • Authentication
  • Biometrics
  • Digital Identity
  • Fraud and Security

The event will also cover aspects such as Privacy & Ethics, Skills and Professional Training, Legal Requirements, Attracting Investment and Powerful Communication for Business Success.

Authentication

  • Pick a date – when will we see the end of passwords?
  • We expected the passwordless revolution to be with us by now, so why I am still using passwords?
  • FIDO Alliance update
  • Biometric authentication – offering the right mixture of security and convenience
  • Continuous authentication – a privacy nightmare?
  • Why we need risk-based authentication more than ever – delivering frictionless authentication

Biometrics

  • The importance of liveness detection in combatting identity fraud
  • How biometrics is being leveraged for secure touchless physical access control
  • The role of voice biometrics in supporting frictionless user authentication
  • Biometrics is not just about identity and authentication – how biometric technology is being used to monitor our wellness and wellbeing

Digital Identity

  • All you need to know about the digital identity wallet wars
  • Who should issue digital identity – government, banks, tech companies or telcos?
  • Case studies
    • What we can learn from the Nordic BankID model
    • Latest developments with digital identity in Canada
  • Is SSI the right choice for your business?
  • Digital Identity in:
    • Government
    • Financial Services
    • Healthcare
    • Travel
  • Identity Verification
  • The security of digital identity – what makes a digital identity system secure?

Fraud & Security

  • New models for fraud management
  • The importance of behavioural analysis in fraud prevention
  • What you need to know about the risk to encryption from quantum computing and how to solve it
  • Encryption as a service – models and benefits
  • The risk of synthetic identity fraud
  • What account takeover (ATO) looks like and how to mitigate risk?
  • Regulatory roundup with updates on
    • GDPR and worldwide data protection regulation
    • PSD2 SCA
    • EU AI regulation

Privacy & Ethics

  • Bias in AI – why it is such an important issue
  • What privacy by design is and how you ensure it is baked into digital trust solutions?
  • Diversity and inclusion in digital identity
  • Important considerations when designing and deploying a biometric system
  • Live AFR – is it such a bad idea?

Join me in October as we shape trust for the digital world by registering for your place now.

Alan’s View – The Healthpass Explosion

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Despite confusion with UK Government’s policy on COVID-19 immunity and vaccination passports (some weeks it is a ‘no’, some weeks a ‘maybe’, other weeks a ‘yes’), it appears there is growing evidence that some sort of digital record to indicate a citizen’s health status will materialise. This is not just a UK trend. Around the world, a consortium of airlines, airports, travel associations, transport groups, technology vendors and governments are joining forces to design and deploy systems to verify the health status of citizens eager to get out and about again.

These initiatives are known by a number of names including immunity passports, test records or vaccination passports but are now being commonly called a healthpass. Biometrics is fundamental to the success of these schemes and biometric providers are recognising that they offer a great opportunity in an economic age where other sectors are stalling on new projects. Biometrics enable these schemes accurately to verify identity and then to authenticate citizens into the healthpass to allow verifiers to access their Covid-19 health data – have I been vaccinated? When was I last tested? Can I safely enter a country?

The UK is piloting a system jointly developed by iProov and Mvine, and British Airways is testing VeriFLY, a biometric health app developed by Daon. There is a need for common standards and interoperability with these schemes and it is encouraging that a global initiative called the Good Health Pass Collaborative has very recently been launched. This initiative includes iProov and Daon joining forces with the Airport Council International (ACI), ID2020, MasterCard and SITA. I am sure that this something we will hotly debate during the coming weeks and months.

My thoughts for the shape of 2021

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It has been a challenging year for us all and one cannot underestimate the impact of the pandemic on so many people around the world.  However, there is significant hope that 2021 will be a much better year for many of us.

2020 has been a year of the acceleration of digital transformation.

More people are working from home – At its highest figure during the Covid lockdown, 38 percent of the UK’s workforce was classified as exclusively working from home. [Source 1: UK ONS]

More people are banking remotely – More people are turning to digital banking, mobile and online, and many people are new entrants in using this technology. A study by McKinsey discovered a 20 percent rise in digital banking during the COVID-19 crisis – that’s two years’ growth in just a couple of months. [Source 2: McKinsey]

More payments are moving online – A study from McKinsey says that in the first six months of 2020, consumers spent US$347 billion online with US retailers, up 30 percent from the same period in 2019.

Once it is safe to do so, and the COVID-19 vaccinations have reached the majority of the world’s population, then we shall undoubtedly see the pendulum swing quite dramatically back to physical interaction. We are social beings and a pent-up demand for physical interaction means we will embrace physical shopping, face-to-face business meetings and events and international travel.  However, a new normal will emerge as normal life resumes and we again experience the inconvenience of long queues for parking at the shopping mall or travelling three hours for a 30 minute business meeting. The pendulum will again move towards the virtual world resulting in a balance of physical and virtual interactions with the distinction between the two narrowing. Much of the change in behaviour that has been a result of this pandemic will stick.

The improved digital infrastructure and a change in work culture will go hand-in-hand to support a much more virtual lifestyle. Businesses will support increased working from home and will benefit from improved productivity, reduced costs from smaller office space and improvements in employee mental health – getting that work-life balance is so important.

In the world of digital trust and security, in particular with authentication, biometrics, fraud and security, and identity, I believe that the following will happen in 2021.

Authentication: Despite the many predictions that 2020 will see the ‘death of the password’ it still dominates the authentication landscape.  The need for secure and frictionless authentication mechanisms that work across all channels and devices has never been so pressing but the fact remains that the password is still king. PSD2 Strong Customer Authentication (SCA) has increased the use of 2FA and MFA but banks and payment service providers are largely turning to SMS delivered OTPs despite many reservations from security experts and groups such as NIST. Standards such as FIDO and other passwordless initiatives provide organisations with alternatives to passwords that eliminate many of the security weaknesses, but adoption levels remain muted. There have been positive moves from some of the large tech networks including Microsoft and Google with their authentication apps but in many cases, it is still not mandatory for users to adopt them. I believe regulatory pressure will be the biggest driver to move away from passwords in 2021.

Biometrics: Expect another stellar year for biometric adoption across a wide range of verticals. I predict that behavioral biometrics will be more widely used in partnership with anti-fraud and authentication solutions especially in heavily regulated industries including financial services (EUs SCA and 3-D Secure 2.0 are driving forces in payments).

Will 2021 be the year that biometric payment cards finally arrive for consumers? Expect an uptick in pilots around the world and increasing commercial rollouts to enable secure, safe, frictionless and no-limit payments in physical locations. Surveys from 2020, including our own yet to be published UK survey, indicate that there is strong demand for these cards and a willingness to pay a nominal sum per month for the privilege of owning one. With the rise of contactless cards in many regions of the world, the addition of biometric authentication will make them the top of wallet choice for millions of consumers.

Biometric accuracy and the ability to withstand presentation attacks (liveness or genuine presence assurance) will continue to improve in 2021 making biometrics a reliable method to identify and authenticate people across a wide range of devices and channels.

Biometrics will be vital for a wide range of applications across many different verticals; to support a safe (often touchless) and seamless travel experience, as a pivotal component in remote digital onboarding, to secure the next generation of connected cars, to link the physical and digital worlds for government-issued digital identity and to both actively and passively authenticate people.

Fraud and Security: There is enormous pressure on fraud and security systems to withstand increasing levels of attack on core systems. Covid-19 has led to increasing levels of fraud attempts against digital services. The UK’s Action Fraud reported a 400 percent increase in COVID-19 related fraud during March 2020 with the majority of reports related to online incidents. As remote onboarding increases there will attacks on the tools that are being used to support this process, including using AI-powered attack tools to fool face biometric systems and the collection of personal information for use in synthetic identity attacks. Attacks on remote account opening has increased during the COVID-19 period and it has become one of the favoured attack points for criminals. In terms of a response from fraud teams, I predict increasing levels of cooperation between fraud and security teams to withstand the assault. This will include increasing adoption of layered tools that protect all levels of digital interaction with customers from discovery, onboarding, authentication and transaction processing.

Throughout 2021, more states will enact privacy and data protection legislation akin to the GDPR and California’s CCPA legislation.

Identity: A portable government-issued digital identity is proving to be a fundamental requirement in supporting digital transformation. It has the ability to provide an anchor for a wide range of linked digital identity credentials. This may be issued in a centralised or decentralised (self-sovereign) model – there are merits for both. Governments manage a rich depository of verified identity data across a number of different agencies. I predict that during 2021 governments will wake up to the opportunity that this data provides by enabling third parties to access this data in the same manner that government-issued documents are used in the physical world.

Age verification will be a popular application for next-generation digital identity solutions. I predict that blockchain technology is a realistic platform for age verification services as it can be supported by a zero-knowledge proof protocol that only supplies a cryptographic representation to the answer – am I legally permitted to access/purchase/consume age restricted products and services, including digital adult content and the consumption of alcohol? For instance, I am a student (this for me was some years back) and I am legally permitted to drink alcohol, but I am at an age where I need to verify my age when entering a venue that serves alcohol. Instead of using a physical government-issued document that proves that I am legally allowed to consume alcohol, along with long list of other personal attributes that are irrelevant to the consumption of alcohol, I (the prover) give permission to the venue management (the verifier) to access my digital identity app (wallet) to verify my age. The verifier doesn’t not need to know my date of birth, they only need to know the answer to the question – am I legally permitted to consume alcohol, to which the answer can only be ‘yes’ or ‘no’.

2020 saw Goode Intelligence work with a wide range of digital identity bodies and providers and we’ll be continuing this collaboration in 2021.

I would like to wish all of you a happy and safe holiday season and I look forward to connecting with you during 2021 – a hopefully less stressful year than 2020.

Alan

[1] https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronavirustheukeconomyandsocietyfasterindicators/1october2020

[2]

https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/financial-services/our-insights/no-going-back-new-imperatives-for-european-banking

 

The Passwordless Customer Journey – Is It On Your Roadmap?

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Most of us agree that passwords are a huge headache. They are easy to forget, vulnerable to hacking, and inconvenient. But can we really live without them? The answer is yes we can! While it won’t be a transition that happens overnight, businesses need to start thinking about the future now. The ability to provide stronger security with less friction will have substantial implications on the customer experience and brand perception.

More than a change in behavior, the evolution requires a shift in mindset by consumers and businesses who have relied on passwords to protect their information and accounts for so long. The passwordless journey needs to be substantially more secure and easier than the existing journey. Trading in one set of pain points for a different set of pain points won’t suffice. As such, biometrics are emerging as the “password killer.”

Today, consumer-grade applications such as iPhone’s Face ID are bringing biometrics into the mainstream, education is needed to create more trust in the technology.

For example, on the consumer side, a common concern is:

“If my password is compromised, I can change it. I can’t change my biometrics.”

This concern is rooted in the perception that your biometrics can be “stolen.” Unlike a password, which is “something you know,” your voice or face biometrics are “something you are.” Sure, someone can obtain a photo or video of you from Facebook or record your voice and use it to trick a biometric system into thinking it sees or hears you. However, this is where liveness detection plays a critical role. It distinguishes between the real you and a spoof.

This concern may be followed by:

“But, what if my biometric “template” is stolen?”

A biometric template is a digital (binary) representation of the unique characteristics found in a person’s biometric sample. These templates are encrypted and stored for future matching. They are virtually meaningless if obtained.

Like any disruptive technology, there is a chasm to traverse. Increased user acceptance of the technology combined with the need for stronger security will continue to drive businesses to embark on the journey towards a passwordless future. What exactly that future looks like and how to get there offers much to discuss!

In the Identity Futures 2020 panel session, The Passwordless Odyssey, Powered by Biometrics, we discussed topics relevant to companies on the road to, or considering, a passwordless future. A panel of diverse experts spoke about how biometrics fit into that journey, how the technology addresses some of the challenges faced today and we discussed the best points in the journey to get started on your path.

View the recording to hear more.

INTERVIEW: The DID Alliance’s Ramesh Kesanupalli talks to us about GADI, the exciting new initiative for Digital Identity…

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Last month we were delighted to host a webinar introduction to the Global Architecture for Digital Identity (GADI) in partnership with the DID Alliance*.  Ramesh Kesanupalli, co-founder of the DID Alliance, founder of the FIDO Alliance and CEO, Digital Trust shares his insight on this very exciting initiative and why we need a new method to add trust and accountability into Digital Identity.

After your success with the FIDO Alliance, what made you turn your attention to identity?

Ramesh Kesanupalli: “There were a couple of reasons: firstly, digital identity is one of the hot topics that is emerging in the industry – after adding up all the attacks that have happened to major entities, and considering the misinformation and untraceable information that is rampant on the internet – Identity is a problem that needs to be fixed.  After the successful standardisation of FIDO and its inclusion in all major operating systems and browsers, it’s only natural to look into identity binding as the next step.  At the same time, the CEO of RaonSecure, Soon Hyung Lee, who has been developing the OmniOne Identity DLT, asked me to take a look at what they were doing which got me started looking into this space.”

Tell us about the basic premise of GADI

Ramesh: “The basic premise of GADI is to define a trustable identity framework that will work at a global scale and bring different identity systems to establish trust and accountability. While security and privacy are the fundamental rights of everyone, for a functioning business or society, trust and accountability are basic necessities.”

What is a digital address and how is it used?

Ramesh: “A Digital Address is a human-readable access point, which is bound to a unique trust anchor for the user that is generated by a trusted issuer in the GADI ecosystem when the user is being on-boarded into the GADI ecosystem.  Once the initial trust anchor of the user is created, and a Digital Address is created for the user with a Digital Address Provider, the issuers can issue the user credentials using the verifiable credential formats, and publish the DIDs (Decentralised Identifiers) of those credentials to the Digital Address that the user is associated with.  The user can then go to any other issuer who would issue credentials to the user and provide their Digital Address so that the other issuer can start issuing their credentials to that user.  The user will then be able to provide verifiable credential presentations to a service provider to prove identity claims as needed based on the service provider’s context.”

Can GADI work with existing identity ecosystems?

Ramesh: “Yes.  Existing identity systems can turn themselves into a Digital Address Provider by embracing the GADI methods of on-boarding users and issuers.  The creation of the initial trust anchor is the key first step which involves identity verification of the user against a government-issued identity document by a high-trust entity.   This could be a Department of Motor Vehicles (DMV), Passport Agency, Employer, Financial Institution or Medical Centre.   Digital Address providers will have to go through a certification process and must follow the governance and policies of the GADI ecosystem.”

Finally, how can people find out more and get involved?

Ramesh: “We welcome organisations, both public and private to come and join the DID Alliance to contribute to the specification, governance, and direction of the ecosystem.  There are different work streams that need help, support and participation.  We have a Technical Working Group, Governance Working Group, Messaging Working Group, Certification Working Group and so on.

“People can get involved at the board membership level, sponsor membership level or associate membership level.  Please visit the DID Alliance web site didalliance.org for more information and to reach out to us.”

*The DID Alliance is an open industry association created to drive the development of a standardised, interoperable framework for decentralised identity services to ensure the authenticity of an established trust in digital identities.

 

An iPhone Touch-ID moment for the automotive industry

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Biometrics is no longer a futurist technology for cars. In 2020 we witnessed the arrival of biometric technology into one of the most iconic luxury vehicles in the world, the Mercedes-Benz S-Class.

Mercedes-Benz announced in July 2020 that its new S-Class car will come with biometric technology integrated into its infotainment system enabling “verification of digital payment processes from the vehicle”. The car will feature built-in fingerprint sensors into the dashboard display, face recognition supported by two cameras and the capability to use voice biometrics. The infotainment system is called ‘My MBUX’ and supports four different methods of authentication, three of them biometric, voice, face and fingerprint.

The German auto giant followed a number of Chinese and South-East Asian (Japan and Korea) automotive OEMs in turning to biometric technology to enhance vehicle entry security and provide an ultra-personalised user experience once inside the cabin.

In our latest market analyst and forecast report – “Automotive Biometrics Market Analysis & Forecasts 2021-2026” – Goode Intelligence covers the latest developments in the automotive sector including how biometrics is supporting modern methods of personal transportation delivery from ride-sharing to autonomous cars.

The report identifies that the current major drivers for integrating biometrics into vehicles are user experience, personalisation and occupant authentication.

Tied to driver/occupant authentication are a number of other drivers that include, vehicle entry and start, in-car payments, driver monitoring for health and wellbeing (HWW) purposes, insurance and vehicle to home automation.

The seven major drivers are defined in the following infographic.

To find out more about the market opportunity for automotive biometrics download our latest white paper and visit our report store.

 

The Impact of Coronavirus on Digital Identity and Biometrics

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We are living in unprecedented times. The Coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis is a global tragedy that is affecting every part of our daily lives. The question on when the world will return to normality is a difficult one to answer. The emergency measures that include restriction on travel and social distancing may well be still in operation into 2021.

Over recent weeks we have been assisting our clients in understanding the impact of COVID-19 on their business This blog provides my views on the effects on identity, authentication and biometrics; the three interconnected areas that Goode Intelligence covers.

I believe that this Coronavirus is accelerating a number of key megatrends of the last twenty years, collectively classified as digital transformation. Moving away from physical service delivery to digital service delivery consumed on any device that can run an app or load a browser. This affects most sectors but is most acute for retail and financial services with physical stores and bank branches being replaced by remote digital services.

The need for social distancing is forcing all of us to perform more of our daily tasks from home. As a CEO of a small business, I am very used to working from the home office and talking to clients and contacts around the globe. I am now joined by my children who are having their lessons delivered digitally via platforms that are normally used for business web conferencing – some of which are managing to stay up with the increased demand. This is a seismic event, one that will put a strain on both technology delivery and society.

The need to accurately identify and authenticate people, and to authorise tasks and transactions through digital channels will accelerate. There will be increased demand for identity and authentication solutions that work seamlessly across endpoints, that are application-appropriate, that comply with regulation, that reduce or maintain acceptable levels of fraud, and meet sudden surges of demand (scale).

This is happening across all verticals; retail, finance, government, entertainment and education. What will be interesting, is whether this ‘emergency’ measure will become more of a permanent feature. Once we start to recover from the crisis, will we go back to commuting to work, shopping in physical stores, banking in branches and visiting theatres and cinemas?

This is my personal view on the impact of the current crisis on this sector, some have an immediate impact; others will materialise once the world recovers.

Biometrics – Don’t Touch This!

In addition to the impact of social distancing on the physical world, touching sensors on shared devices will be restricted during the crisis.

This includes sensors integrated into shared devices including ATMs, point-of-sale (POS) devices, door-locks and kiosks. It has been reported by the New York Times, that the New York Police Department (NYPD) has halted use of its fingerprint entry system at its HQ.[1] Where there is a legal or national security need to use these devices, for instance in border control, then operators will need to keep these devices clean.

Longer-term, organisations may look at deploying biometric sensors that avoid touch in shared and public spaces. We have already seen technology integrated into airports that allow passengers to ‘wave’ their hands through a reader. This doesn’t necessarily mean that organisations will avoid fingerprint as a modality – just don’t touch.

This should not include sensors that are integrated into devices that are not regularly shared, where a single user will enrol and verify; smartphones or biometric payment cards for instance.

Biometric Payment Cards

Gauging the impact on biometric payment cards, I am predicting a delay to large-scale deployment by approximately one to two years. Existing pilots will need to be curtailed and new pilots will likely be postponed. Card manufacturing will be hit as factories are closed down around the globe, although China is slowly starting to re-open (see statement in biometric sensors below).

One of the biggest drivers for adoption is increasing spend limits for contactless transactions. As a result of Coronavirus, countries with high contactless card adoption, including Egypt, Ireland, the Netherlands, Saudi Arabia and UK are increasing the spend limit to remove the need to enter in a PIN for higher value transactions. Ireland has increased its spend limit to €50 from €30, and the UK has increased to £45 from £30. This is a small increase and does not offset the benefit enabled by biometric payment cards of lifting the spending limit for biometrically authenticated payment transactions or bring contactless cards in line with mobile payment wallets.

Biometric Sensors

China, South Korea and Taiwan are the centres of biometric sensor manufacturers and these countries have been at the epicentre of the crisis. Factories have been shut down and will take time to get back to back to normal operating levels after reopening. Factories, especially in China are slowly reopening but it is been estimated that they are still operating at 70-80 percent of their pre-COVID-19 capacity.[2] This will have a negative impact on the supply of biometric sensors to OEMs, although this impact may be lessened as OEMs, in particular mobile OEMs, have recently reported an over-supply.

Demand for consumer electronic devices will be dampened and this compounds the reduced demand for biometric sensors from the principle OEMS.

There is demand for hybrid devices that can both identify and perform an ‘at range’ quick biomedical check on citizens to determine if they may have been infected. In China, these have been worn by law enforcement officers and have also been deployed as scanners at airports. Longer-term, this could potentially kick-start the combination of biomedical and biometrics in ‘worn’ technology – smart watch, wrist bands and clothing – to create applications that know who you are and how you are. Checking body temperature, blood pressure, ECG and heart rate and also knowing the identity of the person (patient).

There needs to be an adequate privacy and trust framework to support this collection of sensitive personal data and it remains to be seen if these ‘emergency’ measures will become permanent once we are out of crisis mode.

Digital Identity Verification (Proofing)

Digital Identity verification answers the following questions:

  1. Is it a real user?
  2. Is it authorised to use the data it presented?
  3. Can you do business with the user?
  4. What is the risk of doing business with the user?

Back in May 2019, I predicted that just over 704 million digital identity verification checks would be made during 2020 around the world. As a result of the COVID-19 crisis and with businesses increasingly reliant on ‘remote’ technology to verify identity and to quickly onboard people to digital services, I believe that this forecast needs to increase – probably by an additional 15-20 percent.

Digital Identity

In a Goode Intelligence analyst report published in November 2019 covering the market for verified digital identity we forecast over three billion digital identity users by 2025. I believe that this forecast still remains relevant but there will be different speeds of adoption between verticals and applications. For instance, for air travel, the impact of COVID is resulting in considerable reduction in passengers. The number of passengers coming through terminals for 2020/21 will be significantly reduced. IATA has predicted that the virus will cost airlines $30 billion[3] and see passengers numbers decline by 13 percent. A driver for the deployment for the ‘kerb-to-gate’ digital identity schemes has been increasing demand on airlines and the need to efficiently process passengers from the kerb to the gate. A consortium of airlines, airport authorities and governments has developed single token systems that leverage biometrics to ensure that passengers can check-in, pass through security and board the plane without the use of a combination of tickets, passports and boarding passes. There will quite likely be a revaluation of these schemes with reduced revenue and repurposing resources to support passenger monitoring and virus containment.

Containing the virus and monitoring citizens and has been a priority for many countries, especially those that have national identity schemes. I expect to see an acceleration in active national identity schemes that collect our ‘digital exhaust’ – identifiable data obtained from a variety of sources including mobile networks and devices, travel/transportation, social network, health networks, financial and payment systems. Even though we are in an emergency situation, this type of ‘surveillance’ identity must be carefully designed and deployed to ensure that the privacy of citizens is respected. Privacy legislation including GDPR must be respected even in these difficult times.

Business Financing

Financing for businesses, especially pre-revenue start-ups may become more difficult, especially in the short-term. Investors have taken a significant hit to their portfolios and will be understandably more cautious about any new funding especially for pre-revenue firms with lengthy runways. This excludes emergency measures from central governments.

How Goode Intelligence is Helping

As a business we have taken steps to support our community by suspending physical events and summits until the time is right to reintroduce them. As an established analyst company with years of experience of running online webinars we shall be creating a number of virtual summits in the coming months to educate and influence our network. If you need support with research or need to influence the industry, we would be delighted to hear from you. In the meantime, please take care and stay safe.

[1] https://nypost.com/2020/03/11/coronavirus-in-ny-fingerprint-security-protocol-halted-at-nypd-hq/

[2] https://www.lazardassetmanagement.com/us/en_us/references/announcements/coronavirus

[3] https://airlines.iata.org/news/coronavirus-outbreak-set-to-cost-airlines-30bn-in-revenue